Rising Costs and Populism Why Affordability Will Make or Break Climate Policy

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European politics is being reshaped by economic frustrations

55% of Europeans think the economy is not working for them, the highest it’s been since we started tracking.

And a 7% increase since 2024.

This shift is happening across countries.

And across generations and income levels.

A notable rise is among younger Europeans (16-24): for the first time, more than half say the economy is not working for them.

But while disaffection is growing across Europe, it is most concentrated in particular regions.

Stretching from Scotland to Northern France, from Eastern Germany to Southern Italy, disaffection is highest in post-industrial and left-behind communities.

Aisne in northern France illustrates the link between industrial decline and economic disaffection. Once hubs for textiles and manufacturing, towns like Saint-Quentin used to power the region’s growth. But they were hit by factory closures, which led to job losses and a hollowing out of the local community. Many residents feel left behind by an economic system that no longer works for them, and the right-wing populist National Rally now dominates local politics.

The Trenčín region in Slovakia’s north-west shows a different path to a similar outcome. For decades, the region was Slovakia’s lignite mining and coal-fired energy hub. When coal production in the region was phased out in 2023, the industry rapidly disappeared. Employment fell sharply, and viable alternatives are yet to emerge. The result has been a growing sense of loss and disconnection. Many people have turned to the left-wing populist SMER-SD to speak for them.

This geography of disaffection helps explain the political shifts emerging across Europe.

Economic disaffection is driving support for populist parties

Rising economic frustrations are closely linked to growing political disaffection.

Over 58% of populist party voters feel economically disaffected.

With national elections due in France, Spain, Poland and Italy in 2027, this will shape Europe’s political trajectory.

Despite this, belief in climate change remains strong

90%

9 in 10 Europeans believe climate change is real.

64%

nearly two-thirds say it is caused by human activity.

66%

the majority continue to support government action.

But this support can’t be taken for granted – affordability is a key tension

Support for the implementation of climate policies drops sharply when people are asked to shoulder additional costs.

When faced with an extra cost of €10 per month, support for climate measures falls from 60% to 47%.

This growing cost sensitivity now extends across age groups. Younger voters (16–24), who have typically been more resilient to paying for the transition, are less willing to bear higher monthly costs.

And for the first time in our 3 years of polling, less than half are now willing to pay more than €25 per month, a 9% drop since 2024.

Voters aren’t rejecting the science. They are worried about the cost.

Renewables remain the most supported technology, but not at any price

Across Europe, solar, wind and nuclear are more popular than fossil fuels.

But crucially, support is conditional and directly tied to the perceived benefits of each technology.

Most want a clear return: lower energy costs once projects come online.

Solar: support for local projects rises 8% if households see lower bills.

Wind: support rises 11% under the same conditions.

Nuclear: support rises 15% under the same conditions.

and speed matters: voters expect benefits quickly

Voters reward projects that deliver fast, visible savings.

Benefits within the first year are the most widely expected outcome.

Younger voters (16-24) are slightly more patient, willing to wait up to five years.

Clean energy can decarbonise Europe and help revitalise overlooked regions, but public support depends on tangible benefits, delivered quickly.

Europe stands at a critical moment: climate ambition is colliding with economic anxiety.

Public support for climate action remains strong. But success will falter unless voters see real, near-term economic gains, particularly in the left-behind regions that are shaping the political debate.

Governments must rethink climate strategy so that cutting costs for households and providing economic opportunity becomes the starting point, not the afterthought, of policy design.

Project Tempo’s new EuroPulse dashboard tracks attitudes to the economy, climate, and policy across over 13,000 local areas in 25 European countries.